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On a one-year basis, the expectation increased to 3.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from March and the highest since November 2023. However, expected increases in housing prices are particularly troublesome for policymakers who expected shelter costs to ease this year. Along with expected higher home costs, respondents see rents rising 9.1%, up 0.4 percentage point from the prior month. They expect food prices to increase 5.3% (up 0.2 percentage point from a month ago), gasoline to rise 4.8% (up 0.3 percentage point); and college education to increase by 9%, a 2.5 percentage point surge. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the all-items CPI to show a 3.4% increase for April from the prior year, down 0.1 percentage point from March.
Persons: Philip Jefferson, Dow Jones Organizations: Costco, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Labor Locations: Novato , California, New, New York
Brauns | E+ | Getty ImagesJust 4% of today's retirees said they are "living the dream," according to a new survey from asset management company Schroders. Image Source | Getty ImagesThe Schroders survey results come as more experts are pointing to a potential retirement crisis. "The retirement savings crisis in the United States is no longer looming: it is here, now," said a new report from the National Institute on Retirement Security. Not everyone agrees there is an emergencySome experts are skeptical there is a retirement savings crisis at all. Of seniors with more than $10,000 in retirement savings, 93% said they were doing okay or living comfortably.
Persons: , Deb Boyden, That's, Warren Buffett's, Boyden, Andrew Biggs, George W, Bush, EBRI, Biggs Organizations: Getty, National Institute on Retirement Security, Finance, American Enterprise Institute, Social Security, Northwestern Mutual, Research Locations: , United States
The share of renters as of February who possess hopes of "residential mobility," or the belief from renters that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4% in the central bank's annual housing survey for 2024. Pessimism about future prospects comes amid a confluence of factors conspiring against the likelihood of renters being able to transition to home ownership. Moreover, mortgage rates have remained high by historical standards. Survey respondents expect housing prices to increase 5.1% over the next year, nearly double the 2.6% expected rate in February 2023 and above the pre-pandemic mean of 4.2%. Despite prospects for the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of 2024, respondents think mortgage rates are only going to go higher.
Persons: Freddie Mac, There's Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, National Association of Realtors, Fed, Federal, Market Locations: Manhattan, New York City, New
Dollar takes a breather as investors ponder U.S. rates outlook
  + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The yen strengthened 0.05% to 154.29 a dollar but remained close to the 34-year low of 154.79 touched on Tuesday. Japan last intervened in the currency market in 2022, spending an estimated $60 billion to defend the yen. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6439, while the New Zealand dollar eased a bit to $0.5914 after spiking 0.6% on Wednesday.
Persons: Sterling, Michelle Bowman, Kristina Clifton, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Market Committee, Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, IG, Japan, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Japan, South Korea, Tokyo, Seoul
Oil inches up after U.S. reimposes Venezuela oil sanctions
  + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The sun sets beyond an oil pumping unit, also known as a "nodding donkey" or pumping jack, at a drilling site operated by Tatneft OAO near Almetyevsk, Russia. Oil prices rose in early trade on Thursday, slightly paring the previous session's losses after the United States said it would reinstate oil sanctions Venezuela, while the European Union talked of fresh curbs on Iran. The U.S. said it would not renew a license set to expire on Thursday that had broadly eased Venezuela oil sanctions, moving to reimpose punitive measures in response to President Nicolas Maduro's failure to meet his election commitments. Looking to prevent a wider conflict, European Union leaders decided on Wednesday to step up sanctions against Iran. According to JP Morgan estimates, worldwide oil consumption so far in April has averaged 101 million bpd, or 200,000 bpd below its own forecast.
Persons: OAO, Brent, Nicolas Maduro's, Morgan Organizations: ANZ Research, European Union, Iran, The U.S . House, Federal Locations: Almetyevsk, Russia, States, Venezuela, European, Iran, U.S, United States, Israel, The, Ukraine
CNBC Fed Survey: Bond yields expected to remain around 4%
  + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: Bond yields expected to remain around 4%CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest from CNBC's exclusive Federal Reserve survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, Survey
From consumer and wholesale prices to longer-term public expectations, reports this week served up multiple reminders this week that inflation isn't going away anytime soon. Data across the board showed pressures increasing at a faster-than-expected pace, causing concern that inflation could be more durable than policymakers had anticipated. The bad news began Monday when a New York Federal Reserve survey showed the consumer expectations over the longer term had accelerated in February. It continued Tuesday with news that consumer prices rose 3.2% from a year ago, and then culminated Thursday with a release indicating that pipeline pressures at the wholesale level also are heating up. The latest jolt on inflation came Thursday when the Labor Department reported that the producer price index, a forward-looking measure of pipeline inflation at the wholesale level, showed a 0.6% increase in February.
Persons: Steven Blitz, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Labor Department, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics
Opinion | Can America Survive a Party of Saboteurs?
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Almost four years have passed since Congress approved and Donald Trump signed a huge relief bill designed to limit the financial hardship created by the Covid-19 pandemic. The CARES Act did its job. Furthermore, fears that generous aid during the pandemic would undermine America’s work ethic — that adults would leave the labor force and never come back — proved totally wrong. So the CARES Act was a huge policy success. But given recent political developments, I’ve found myself thinking: What would have happened if Democrats in 2020 had behaved like Republicans in 2024?
Persons: Donald Trump, , San Francisco Fed, I’ve Organizations: Federal Reserve, San Francisco, Age Labor
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: 70% of respondents say first rate cut comes in JuneCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the results from CNBC's latest Federal Reserve Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, Reserve Survey
Why is Donald Trump continuing to poll so strongly with voters? As unpalatable as a second Trump term would be, many pundits who tackle this question have ignored a striking fact: The typical household’s living standard improved during the three Trump years before the pandemic. The old saw that Mussolini got the trains to run on time should not be understood as an endorsement. But it is one thing to loathe Mr. Trump and hope for his defeat. The leitmotif in such arguments is that blue voters are rational political actors voting on merit while Trump is appealing primarily, if not exclusively, to irrational semi-citizens devoid of even self-interested calculation.
Persons: Donald Trump, Biden, Mussolini, Mr, Trump, Organizations: Trump, Survey, Consumer Finances
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: Respondents expect no additional rate hikes from the Federal ReserveCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on data from the latest CNBC Federal Reserve Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, Survey, Federal, Reserve Survey
You may think the term "net worth" only applies to celebrities and CEOs, but it's something we all have — and we all should know it. Here's a breakdown of both median and average American net worth by age, according to the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances published in October 2023. Knowing your net worth can help you assess whether your next financial move is a good one. Empower (formerly Personal Capital) and Mint are two platforms that make tracking your net worth easy. Empower has its own net worth calculator and Mint has a net worth-specific dashboard that calls out your progress each month.
Organizations: Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer, Federal Reserve Survey, Consumer Finances, Google, Android, CNBC, CNBC Select's, Facebook, Twitter Locations: U.S
WASHINGTON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The chance for persistent inflation to keep interest rates higher and potential losses in the commercial real estate market are among the top concerns of respondents to a Federal Reserve survey on financial stability, the U.S. central bank said on Friday. The latest version of the central bank's semiannual report found that three-quarters of survey respondents cited those two issues as prominent near-term risks. Concerns over bank stability following the failure of three large firms this spring were cited by roughly half, similar to levels seen in the May version of the report. Reporting by Pete Schroeder; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Pete Schroeder, Leslie Adler Organizations: Federal, Thomson Locations: U.S
But the income gains were largest among the highest-earning families, and fastest among white families, with income at the median actually registering small declines for both Hispanic and Black families, the Fed found in its latest Survey of Consumer Finances, conducted every three years. Median net worth rose sharply for all ethnic and income groups, the survey showed, though the lowest-earning 20% of households fared the worst, with a 2% decline on average over the period versus double-digit increases for all other income groups. The survey showed other stark contrasts. Still, Black households had the lowest median net worth at about $45,000, 27% below the next lowest, Hispanics, at about $62,000. By contrast, median household net worth for white families was $285,000 and for Asians - measured on their own for the first time in this year's survey - was $536,000.
Persons: Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Chizu Nomiyama, Aurora Ellis Organizations: Federal, Consumer Finances, Thomson
A man sleeps on chairs, in between subway platforms, at the 34th street and Broadway station in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 18 (Reuters) - American families on average saw large gains in income and wealth from 2019 to 2022, a period marked by the severe disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic and massive government spending in response, and measures of financial fragility fell, a Federal Reserve survey published Wednesday showed. But the income gains were largest among the highest earning families, and fastest among white families, with income at the median actually registering small declines for both Hispanic and Black families, the Fed found in its latest Survey of Consumer Finances, conducted every three years. Median net worth rose sharply for all ethnic and income groups, the survey showed, though the lowest-earning 20% of households fared the worst, with a 2% decline on average over the period versus double-digit increases for all other income groups. Reporting by Ann Saphir and Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Chizu Organizations: Broadway, REUTERS, Federal, Consumer Finances, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
The results were part of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August. Fears of credit access have been rising steadily since early 2022, around the same time that the Fed began raising interest rates. While the Fed worries over higher prices, the inflation outlook was mixed. Expectations for inflation one year and five years out rose just 0.1 percentage point on the month, taking them respectively to 3.6% and 3%. That comes with an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, or 0.1 percentage point above its year-ago level.
Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, York Fed's Survey, Fed Locations: New, York
Regional bank stocks, in particular, gained as much as 35% before the bond warnings and downgrades began. The higher interest rates bond analysts cited hurt profits some, but most banks' net interest income and margins were higher than a year before. The ratings actions pushed the regional bank stock index 10% lower for the month-long period ending Sept. 8, according to Morningstar (the Moody's bank warning was issued August 7). By any reckoning, the argument about banks is about two things: Interest rates and real estate, specifically office buildings. The average regional bank stock rose 8% after earnings, Morgan Stanley said, with banks beating profit forecasts by an average of 5%.
Persons: Morningstar —, downgrades, Morgan Stanley, Jill Cetina, Cetina, Banks, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Scott Rechler, Jeff Greene, Alexander Yokum, Dick Bove, Bove, Yokum Organizations: First, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Getty, Moody's Investors Service, Poor's, Fitch, Morningstar, Federal Reserve, Fedwatch, RXR, Research, Odeon Capital Locations: First Republic, Regional, Moody's, U.S
The Fed next meets on Sept. 19-20, and futures markets currently expect no increase for that gathering. Primary dealers also thought ahead of the July 25-26 FOMC meeting that the Fed would be able to cut rates at the April 2024 meeting. By the final quarter of next year, primary dealers told the New York Fed they expect a 4% federal funds rate, while the market participant survey predicted 3.88%. Fed holdings peaked in the summer of 2022 at just shy of $9 trillion and currently stand at $8.3 trillion. On Wednesday, Fed officials released the meeting minutes from the July FOMC meeting that showed some division over the need for their last rate rise.
Persons: Michael S, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Fed, New York Fed, Thomson
"As the new line in the sand is 1%, it would make sense to broaden the YCC band by this level." Investor attention during Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "However, we expect any post RBA strength in Aussie to be short lived given the weak global economic outlook." Bank of England's policy meeting on Thursday is in the spotlight, with markets evenly divided between a 25- and 50-basis-point increase. Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Carlos Casanova, Kristina Clifton, CBA's Clifton, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Organizations: of Japan's, Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Survey, Bank of, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Singapore
Morning Bid: August cools Wall St stocks
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
China's factory underperformance stood out once again and underlined its struggling recovery - perhaps the main driver of stalling industrial activity everywhere. With markets increasingly impatient at the patchy and underwhelming economic stimulus plans seen from Beijing so far, China stocks fell back (.CSI300), bucking Tuesday's wider Asia stocks rally. Sterling and UK stocks (.FTMC) fell back. Ride-hailing giant Uber's stock rose more than 2% before the bell and ahead of its earnings report. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Mike Dolan, underperformance, Austan Goolsbee, Goolbee, Stanley Black, Decker, Zimmer Biomet, Revvity, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S ., Chicago Fed, Bank of England, Sterling, AMD, Caterpillar, Big Pharma, Pfizer, Merck, Ride, HSBC, BP, Uber, Prudential Financial, AIG, Starbucks, Molson Coors, Boston Properties, Caesars Entertainment, Illinois Tool, Natural Resources, Energy, Devon Energy, Gartner, Allstate, Paycom Software, Electronic, WEC, Rockwell, Public Service Enterprise, P Global, Dallas Fed, Chicago Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall, Beijing, China, Asia, ., Marathon, Eaton, Altria, Marriott, Illinois, Progressive
Yen eases to 3-week low as traders weigh BOJ shift, focus on RBA
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen slipped to a fresh three-week low on Tuesday as traders pondered the Bank of Japan's steps last week to tweak its yield curve control policy, while the Australian dollar was soft ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision. "As the new line in the sand is 1%, it would make sense to broaden the YCC band by this level." Investor attention during Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "However, we expect any post RBA strength in Aussie to be short lived given the weak global economic outlook." Bank of England's policy meeting on Thursday is in the spotlight, with markets evenly divided between a 25- and 50-basis-point increase.
Persons: Carlos Casanova, Kristina Clifton, CBA's Clifton Organizations: of Japan's, Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Survey, Bank of Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S
The Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or SLOOS, also showed that banks expect to further tighten standards over the rest of 2023. Monday's SLOOS report - which Fed policymakers had in hand last week when they decided to deliver an 11th interest-rate hike after skipping one at their June meeting - suggests credit tightening is ongoing. For small firms, a net 49.2% of banks said credit terms were stiffer, versus 46.7% in the last survey. Smaller net shares of banks reported tightening standards for auto loans, though terms for credit cards did tighten somewhat. While still weak, demand for auto loans was the least soft in four quarters, while demand for credit card loans was essentially flat after two straight negative quarters.
Persons: Monday's, You've, you've, Jerome Powell, Daniel Silver, Ann Saphir, Nick Zieminski, Dan Burns, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Federal, Survey, Reuters, Thomson
Lending conditions at U.S. banks are tight and likely to get tighter, according to a Federal Reserve survey released Monday. The Fed's closely watched Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showed that while credit conditions got more strict, demand declined as well. On the issue of consumer lending, banks "reported having tightened standards for credit card loans and other consumer loans, while a moderate net share reported having done so for auto loans." At his-post meeting news conference last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he expected the loan survey to be "consistent with what you would expect." "You've got lending conditions tight and getting a little tighter, you've got weak demand, and you know, it gives a picture of a pretty tight credit conditions in the economy," Powell said.
Persons: Banks, Jerome Powell, You've, you've, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed
And although credit application approvals are down, applications for credit cards have increased by 24.8%, showing that Americans are relying more and more on credit to make ends meet. So if your credit application was denied, your credit score should be the first place you look to determine the reason. Why: Your credit utilization is highYour credit utilization is the amount of credit you have available versus the amount you actually owe. For example, if you have a credit limit of $1,000 and you owe $900, your credit utilization is 90% of your available credit. Conversely, a credit limit of $1,000 with a balance of $100 puts your credit utilization ratio at 10% of your available credit, and would positively impact your credit score.
Persons: What's, they'll Organizations: Federal, Service, New York Federal Reserve, The New York Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
To feel comfortable or financially secure, Americans need a salary of roughly $233,000 a year on average, Bankrate found. Although 1 in 3 Americans say low pay is the reason they don't feel secure, other factors are adding to the anxiety. Why Americans don't feel financially secureThe biggest contributors to Americans' financial insecurities may be things outside of their control. Other factors include the economic environment, which 48% of survey respondents cited, and rising interest rates, cited by 36% of respondents. As for retirement savings, 60% of Americans say they don't have a retirement-specific savings account, according to a recent NerdWallet survey.
Persons: Bankrate, Sarah Foster, Bankrate's, Foster, That's, wouldn't Organizations: Federal Locations: U.S
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